Archive: Business Model

Andreessen warns: don’t burn cash, or you’ll turn to ash

Cash Burn

Don’t burn cash, says Marc Andreessen. In a retweet of Fred Wilson’s Post on burning cash, losing money. Marc Andreessen warns that hyper valuations should be used by entrepreneurs to stash up on cash, not to have delusions of grandeur and spend it all until you have nothing left to spend.

 

This is an interesting and important point. Says Marc, we are not in a bubble unless the spending behaviour of entrepreneurs make it a bubble. Their companies can well create the value implied in high valuations, as has been proven by the many spectacular success cases of disruptive players from Facebook to Uber. But startups need to stay focused and not spend because they have.

 

As my early mentor Ken Morse was wont to say: the laws of gravity have not been repealed.

 

 

itravel’s Market is booming: 40% of Americans book trips on mobile/tablets

itravel_mobile headline

Americans are rapidly moving away from desktops and getting comfortable, real comfortable, booking all of their travel reservations on tablets and smartphones. In other words, we’re making our travel plans on mobile devices, not desktops and laptops.

 

Read more: http://venturebeat.com/2014/09/19/travel-bookings-by-mobile-devices-in-u-s-now-at-40-percent-and-growing-report/

 

Rapidly, crushingly, the market is moving to where our product vision has been since 2012. We started at 4% mobile users and now get 42% of our traffic from mobile devices and our apps.

 

 

The Winds of Change in European Venture Capital

Lights in Europe

Recently I commented on my perception of the deficiencies of the Approach of European VCs to their investment decisions, criticizing what I perceive to be non-analytical herd investing reflexes. Startups are deemed “hot” or not, irrespective of their disruptive potential.

 

Two posts prove me a bit wrong and show that their may be a set of “new VCs” who are eating the world of the “old VCs”.

 

Ciaran O’Leary (@ciaranoleary) explains why he disregards business plan targets and focuses on the startup doing what is right to build its value proposition here: http://berlinvc.com/2014/09/19/doing-what-is-needed-to-achieve-the-plan-vs-doing-what-is-right/

 

Christian Hernandey (@christianhern) describes how a new(er) set of VCs are adressing the series A Crunch and taking a different approach, helping close the US-Europe gap in Startup Funding:

 

This is very encouraging, though understanding how Venture Capitalists decide remains the most important question LPs should ask themselves.

 

 

 

Managerial Versus Entrepreneurial Decision Making

The following text is from a McGraw-Hill Book on Entrepreneurship published in 2005

The difference between the entrepreneurial and the managerial styles can be viewed from five key business dimensions—strategic orientation, commitment to opportunity, commitment of resources, control of resources, and management structure. Managerial styles are called the administrative domain.

 

Strategic Orientation
The entrepreneur’s strategic orientation depends on his or her perception of the opportunity. This orientation is most important when other opportunities have diminishing returns accompanied by rapid changes in technology, consumer economies, social values, or political rules. When the use of planning systems as well as measuring performance to control current resources is the strategic orientation, the administrative (managerial) domain is operant, as is the case with many large multinational organizations.

 

Commitment to Opportunity
In terms of the commitment to opportunity, the second key business dimension, the two domains vary greatly with respect to the length of this commitment. The entrepreneurial domain is pressured by the need for action, short decision windows, a willingness to assume risk, and few decision constituencies and has a short time span in terms of opportunity commitment. This administrative (managerial) domain is not only slow to act on an opportunity, but once action is taken, the commitment is usually for a long time span, too long in some instances. There are often no mechanisms set up in companies to stop and reevaluate an initial resource commitment once it is made—a major problem in the administrative (managerial) domain.

 

Commitment of Resources
An entrepreneur is used to having resources committed at periodic intervals that are often based on certain tasks or objectives being reached. These resources, often acquired from others, are usually difficult to obtain, forcing the entrepreneur to maximize any resources used. This multistage commitment allows the resource providers (such as venture capitalists or private investors) to have as small an exposure as possible at each stage of business development and to constantly monitor the track record being established. Even though the funding may also be implemented in stages in the administrative domain, the commitment of the recourses is for the total amount needed. Administratively oriented individuals respond to the source of the rewards offered and receive personal rewards by effectively administering the resources under their control.

 

Control of Resources
Control of the resources follows a similar pattern. Since the administrator (manager) is rewarded by effective resource administration, there is often a drive to own or accumulate as many resources as possible. The pressures of power, status, and financial rewards cause the administrator (manager) to avoid rental or other periodic use of the resource. The opposite is true for the entrepreneur who—under the pressure of limited resources, the risk of obsolescence, a need for flexibility, and the risks involved—strives to rent, or otherwise achieve periodic use of, the recourses on an as-needed basis.

 

Management Structure
The final business dimension, management structure, also differs significantly between the two domains. In the administrative domain, the organizational structure is formalized and hierarchical in nature, reflecting the need for clearly defined lines of authority and responsibility. The entrepreneur, true to his or her desire for independence employs a flat organizational structure with informal networks throughout.

 

Source: Hisrich, PhD, Robert D., Michael P. Peters, PhD and Dean A. Shepherd, PhD. Entrepreneurship. 6 ed. New York: McGraw-Hill Irwin, 2005.

CeBIT 2009 Q&A on the YouTube CeBIT Channel

In addition to my keynote, I was interviewed by the host of the channel. What exactly are the Web 3.0 changes that lead to a “webciety”? Big questions, small answers: I tried to pinpoint how individuals get a chance to monetize their expertise or at least make it available to a larger crowd/audience.

Rezession die beste Zeit für Social Media? [German]

Peter Turi hat ein Video – Interview geposted, dass er mit mir auf dem DLD 09 geführt haben. Darin stellt er solche spannenden Fragen wie:

1) Ist Rezession eine schlechte Zeit für Startups?

2) Wird sich bei den Startups die Spreu vom Weizen trennen?

3) Wird YouTube sevenload verdrängen?

4) Was ist das “nächste große Ding?”

Hier sind meine Antworten:

Interview Turi2 (2009): Interview with Axel Schmiegelow about his entrepreneurship (German) from curtis newton gmbh on Vimeo.

The Future of (web) TV

Reflecting on the current discussions, last at the Delphi Executive conference in Bonn, and at CeBIT which I both attended as a speaker, I recalled the very lively panel at DLD 09 around online video and social media. If you are interested in the topic, the video gives you insights with Brightcove, Endemol, sevenload and Termor Media and a great moderator, David Kirkpatrick from Fortune Magazine.

About the specifics of how we perceive the value of recurring WebTV Content, please check my Interview at ETRE in Stockholm:

ETRE 2008: Axel Schmiegelow describes the sevenload community and “The Future of TV” from curtis newton gmbh on Vimeo.

Videoportal for conferences a successful product!

After a number of trial runs and the establishment of a channel for ETRE, we were very happy to get DLD 09 conference as a high profile client for our conference application. We feel it was a great success, and are looking forward to a number of new event partners.

The application lets you relive the conference, jump from session to session and speaker to speaker, all in HD quality and with, of course, all the player functionality of ffw and rew, embed, fullscreen etc..!

This will be an interesting application for companies and media as well.

Labor Costs and Service Prices in the US economy: hidden flexibility?

Travelling through the US once again and hearing comments about the recession every day, I was struck by the elasticity of US business once again. As much as the business climate is intoxicating to the point of being hectic in boom times, as seen in 1999/2000 and once again in 2007, in bear times everything gets very gloomy.

I was riding in a cab in Las Vegas headed to CES and for once in the habit of European cab fares I forgot to tip the cab driver. He commented “You Europeans never tip, do you?”. After paying the due tip, I reflected on how dependent employees in all services industries were on tips for their regular income. I also noticed that tipping behavior on the part of Americans differed strongly from what I had experienced just 6 months ago on my last extended trip to California. People now, out of need or out of fashion, were downright stingy. Given that such large portions of the US economy are service based, I could not help but wonder how that had the same effect as a wage cut in many of these industries. At the very least, it shows that employers, who deflect part of the necessity of paying market wages to the culture of tipping and its encouragement in the policies of their businesses, thereby have an instrument to reduce and flexibilize their labor cost. In boom times employees earn more from tips and in bust times they earn less without the employer having to enforce wage cuts. This benefits the employer because he remains at his (low) wage cost basis, keeps his prices stable and lets the customer reduce tips if he feels he needs to. Since tips are part of the price structure of using a service, this means that lower tipping amounts to a deflation of service prices from the point of the customer. Thus, in a way, the business owner is leaving part of the pricing to the customer who can deflate the price he pays at will if his pockets are tied – as is the case in a recession.

Now while this, from a European perspective, could be perceived as an unfair advantage the business owner has in his relation to employees and customers, it could also be described as an “entrepreneurial risk” of the employee. Employees that commit particularly well to the service they are a part of and endear themselves to customers will invariably in good or bad times reap better tips from the customers. An employee who does well will probably convince a business owner to give him the responsibilities (assigned tables, assigned services) that will have the highest likelihood of earning him tips. One can already observe that some businesses compete on a labor market by installing policies that encourage tips.

A hamburger chain called Fat Burger places a small tip box next to a big tip box at the cash register and each time a larger tip is paid into the so called “fat tip box” the cashier yells out “FAT TIP!” and all other employees chime in yelling “FAT TIP!” as well.

As ludicrous as a discussion of the macroeconomic effect of tipping might seem at first glance, the impact on the US economy must be sizable. Considering the service industry is a 10s of billions of dollars segment of the economy and that average tipping is between 10 and 20 % of a purchase, tipping could well amount to several billion dollars in the economy. Adding or subtracting billions of dollars of volume to the price structure of the service industry could in turn have stronger than imagined effects on inflation and deflation, as well as on purchasing power in low income segments of the population.

As I am not an economist, I will leave the discussion at that, but I sure would find it interesting to know if this has ever been explored academically.

TV still the lead medium?

In a recent post, emarketer quoted a study by Deloitte stating that TV was still the lead influencer of purchasing decisions by consumers, even in the US.

I beg to differ.

Studies on the share of TV in media consumption do not differentiate enough as to the level of attention that the medium is consumed with. So many households have TV running virtually all day with a minimum of attention as opposed to an online usage that is still predominantly active, targeted (in the sense of the user pursuing a search or e-commerce activity), or socially interactive, that the two types of consumption cannot be equated – it’s comparing apples and pears.

The is all the more true if we consider the demographics, with a larger portion of low-income households letting the TV running indiscriminately. Besides, if you discount the number of TVs running 12 hours a day in Bars and Restaurants, I would wager that in terms of full attention media consumption, online has already overtaken TV.

We lack a study that compares – from the vantage point of an advertiser – conversion rates on campaigns running on TV and non-display-ads online.

The trend will increase with the further roll-out of online video.

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